Are We Over the Worst of the Ebola Virus?

The deadly Ebola virus, which has claimed 8,690 lives to date, appears to be slowing down in its outbreak rate… but the battle to contain the disease has not been won yet, says the UN special envoy for the virus.

The outbreak, which is the worst of its kind in history, began in southern Guinea on December 4^th, 2013. It has been traced to a young boy, Emile Ouamouno, who tragically died within four days of contracting the disease. Since then, it has been largely confined to Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, although it has spread across the world as far as Europe and the United States, infecting more than 20,000 people en route. For more information on the specifics of the outbreak, how it was contracted and how it has spread so quickly, see this new story: Where Did Ebola Start?

A “Levelling-Off” of Cases

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), up until the 21^st January, Ebola had claimed 3,636 lives in Liberia, 3,159 in Sierra Leone, 1,880 in Guinea and 8 in Nigeria. In October, Nigeria was declared completely free of the disease, and encouraging signs have been forthcoming in Liberia – the country in which the disease has claimed the most lives.

The latest figures from that country claim that there are only 10 confirmed cases of the virus as of January 12^th, which is a staggering achievement when taken into account how exponentially it was growing up until recently.

Back in October 2014, WHO’s Dr Bruce Aylward famously stated that any claim to have the disease under control would be “like saying your pet tiger is under control”, highlighting the fast-spreading and unpredictable nature of the virus. However, recent signs are most encouraging, with the UN mission chief Ismail Ould Cheikh Ahmed moved to say that victory over Ebola was “within our reach” – though he was quick to stress the importance of guarding against complacency.

The Factors in Ebola’s Decline

Why has the disease suddenly plateaued in terms of outbreak rates? Well, scientists across the world have been working around the clock to try to come up with a successful serum to guard against the disease. Back in September of last year, fighting Ebola with experimental treatments was declared to be ethical by the UN as it sought to curb the disease’s startling proliferation. Drugs such as TKM-Ebola and Zmapp are at the forefront of our current weaponry against the disease, though neither have been certified as safe and successful, as yet.

However, aside from pharmaceuticals, the biggest reason in the decline of Ebola has been a change in habits and hygiene from the Liberian people. Working on the ground in the disease-stricken country, Dr David Nabarro commented: “The facilities to treat people are available everywhere. Safe burial teams are providing safe and dignified burial services everywhere and the result is that we're seeing the beginnings of the outbreak slowing down.”

One of the major causes of the spread of the disease had been unhygienic burial practices which involved handling contaminated corpses, leading to widespread infection. Better knowledge of the dangers of such practices, along with better-equipped facilities across the country, has led to a sharp decline in Ebola outbreak numbers.

Hopefully, we have seen the worst of this fatal virus not just in Liberia, but in Sierra Leone, Guinea and the wider world as well.